What are the real odds of first mover advantage?

First off, is it even a real thing? 

But second, is it a scientific law (as some assert)?

Lots of data suggest it’s… complicated. 

But there’s plenty of evidence that it’s not a slam dunk. Many times, first-movers tank and later-entrants take over the market. (Remember the first search engine? The first MP3 player? Me neither.)

On the one hand, being a first mover can be awesome. You become the prototype for the category. You can lock up distribution or supply. And of course, you could dominate the market. ;-) 

One metastudy (that’s a study of studies) found something like 65% of cases ended in actual first-mover advantage.

So “first-mover advantage” is not a Brand Law.

Put it in the very wide — and very frustrating — category of “it depends.”

Some LESSONS:

1. Being first can help, but it's not destiny. Many first movers succeed, but many fail too. 

2. Later entrants can learn and improve. Followers often refine the idea & win out. 

3. First mover advantage belongs in the category of “it depends."